Oregon Unemployment At Record Low

Last week the Oregon Employment Department released its latest jobs numbers, reporting the state’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since comparable records began in 1976 – and keeping apace with low national unemployment rates. But it’s hard to get a good picture of how African Americans are faring in the current boom.

The state’s unemployment releases new jobs data every month, and a Sept. 16 press release reported Oregon’s jobless rate at 3.8 percent. Unemployment rates nationwide dipped from 3.9 percent in August to 3.7 percent in September.

But the OED’s numbers aren’t segmented by race. There are two data sets from the federal government that provide a demographic breakdown of rates of joblessness, but they use very different methodologies – and can come up with very different results.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes annual estimates based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, which is a monthly survey with some results compiled and released annually using averages from the previous year. Fifteen years of data from that set, compiled and released by the Oregon Department of Employment at The Skanner’s request, show that in 2017 an average of 5.9 Oregonians identifying as Black or African American were unemployed, as compared to 4.1 percent of the general population.

A second set of data, also gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau, shows a much higher unemployment rate for Black Oregonians for the same year. The American Community survey reports an unemployment rate of 13.1 percent among Black Oregonians in 2016.

Tracy Morrissette, local area unemployment statistics coordinator for the Oregon Employment Department, said there are two things that can help account for the difference between the two numbers. First, since African Americans make up 2 percent of Oregon’s total population, survey takers can have a difficult time getting a large enough sample size to get good data. Second, the two surveys have very different methodologies. For the Current Population Survey, the Census Bureau sends interviewers to households, where they can talk to individual residents and ask followup questions as they take down information. The American Community Survey is mailed to households for individuals to fill out, and while it is a far more extensive survey, the interpersonal dynamic and the relative ease of reaching people by mail can really shift the numbers.

Morrisette also noted that while CPS data on race are available, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish the data on Black Oregonians for 2016 because the sample size was too small.

So which number gives a better picture?

Morrissette said because the American Community Survey is more comprehensive and reaches more households, for this specific line of inquiry it gives more useful information.

 “For that kind of analysis you’re probably better off with ACS because you kind of compare it to the ACS rate if you’re just looking at that year,” Morrissette said.

ACS data can also give a better picture of just how well Black Oregonians are faring in the current boom. For example, state report from May using ACS data also noted most nonwhite racial groups, including Black Oregonians, report lower average wages than White or Asian Oregonians and that African Americans tend to be overrepresented in lower-wage industries such as leisure and hospitality. Black Oregonians, making an average reported wage of just over $40,000 in 2016, also had slow rates of real wage growth over the past decade.

According to the state, using data from surveys of employers, most recent gains have been in the construction industry, which added 11,100 jobs in the last 12 months – or 11.2 percent. Oregon’s other growth industries included leisure and hospitality, which added 6,600 jobs (3.2 percent growth), professional and business services (up 7,400 jobs or 3 percent) and “other services” (up 2,000 jobs or 3.1 percent).

Nationwide, Black unemployment is at a record low of 6 percent, but still outstrips the 3.7 unemployment rate among the general population.